Robert Garfield’s (editor Advertising Age) new book “The Chaos Scenario” couldn’t be more on target. With the networks showing a 49% decrease in revenue and the upfronts compromising CPMs not to mention the collapse of the newspaper, book and magazine industry Mr. Garfield is right on top of what is happening. I have been preaching this in my classes for the last five years. I have been trying to warn all who would listen that this was coming. I saw it in 1987 when I worked for McGraw-Hill and we took a 21 volume encyclopedia that cost $200 to print and put it on a CD-ROM for $5 cost to print. We still sold it for the same price but obviously our margins increased tremendously.
I left MH in 1988 to go to academia and consulting on this new medium. They were very heady years. I often had to leave the stage or podium because the crowds got a little ruffled. Don’t kill the messenger! The print industry wouldn’t listen. I am not quoting here but I will paraphrase from Dr. Frank T. Romano at R.I.T., when he called me a pioneer of new media. I didn’t know if it was an insult or a compliment since he was a print man all his life. However that was 1995 and things were just happening.
I got involved in a startup with two printers. They saw the CD-ROM as the next product. I tried to convince them that it would have a short life span compared to the Web and the Internet. In 1996 they decided there was no future in this new media thing and closed shop. Amazingly brilliant people!
Now in academia I have been screaming for the last 20 years that the Web was the only place to be focused. Again no response! Now we are faced with a new, new economy that is changing the game as Mr. Garfield notes in his book. Kindle Dx and PlasticLogic along with all the other eReaders are changing the publishing paradigm. Delivery of information is the key with as always content being the “King” – Esther Dyson 1995 – N.Y. Times magazine article. 15 years ago she made that statement. Brewster Kale has been digitizing books for the last ten years. Longer than Google.
There is a new, new economy for the world of information distribution. It can come from anywhere and it needs to be addressed as soon as possible. I just showed a group of 8th graders the eReaders mentioned above. They wanted to know why their schools had not invested in them yet. This is a 12 year old seeing the potential of this product. Amazing.
The world of media and content distribution has got to embrace this new, new economy and learn to control the chaos or it will eat their lunch.